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Weaning companies and investors off their addiction was never going to be easy, even 10 years after central banks first put their stimulus packages in place, and despite warnings that these measures need to end.
For some time, the US Federal Reserve has taken on the role of the advance guard, forging a path towards higher rates for others to follow. Back in 2013 it was forced to retreat when it signalled in the mildest terms that it would begin withdrawing its quantitative easing programme.
The three-month Treasury yield rose to 1.55% on Friday, the highest since September 11, 2008.
Investors are beginning to price in a rate hike in March: The 10-year yield closed on Friday at 2.83% and in late trading went on to 2.85%.
That’s a big move: Stock markets are heading for a wild ride this year as central bankers strap on their bullet-proof vests and test investors’ willingness to accept higher interest rates.
Last week’s share price crashes, which in two days wiped trillion off the value of markets around the world, was just a foretaste of the battle to come.
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The market responded to each rate hike with increases in short-term yields but defied the Fed on longer-term yields, which fell until September 2017.In the days following Monday’s crash, share values have recovered strongly only to dive again as competing theories about the path of interest rates and the likely impact on economic growth fight for attention.Most investors want the era of cheap borrowing to continue and many are willing to sell their shareholdings if it looks like coming to an end.So what happened last week was that the two-year yield fell, while the yields of most longer maturities stayed put or rose, steepening the yield curve from the two-year yield on up.The chart below shows the “yield curves” as they occurred on these four dates: • Yields on Friday, February 9, 2018 (red line) • Yields on December 29, 2017 (black line) • Yields on August 29, 2017 (green line) two weeks before the QE unwind was detailed.